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As you mentioned, a lot of it depends on yourself and factors about your writing style. The ones I can see are:
Sustained typing speed: Tests usually give you peak speed but I think most people slow down over time.
How long can you type: I binge write so I do 18 hour writing sessions every month or so, belt out a lot of words, but then don't do anything else. Others like to do the steady 1.7k/words a day and stop as soon as they are done.
Uninterrupted time: If you are interrupted every twenty minutes by a small child, it doesn't matter how fast you write, you'll spend more time coming up to speed to get to the average time.
What else you are doing: If you are writing at the end of a sixteen hour day, you'll probably be less productive if you have only two college classes in the afternoon.
Planning: There is planning and planning. If you have a vague idea of what you are doing, you'll spend more time working on plot. If you have everything including rough dialog, you'll go a lot faster.
Compartmentalization: We all have an inner critic. How easily you can shove them in a box and ignore them will impact your creation speed.
Environment: If you have a good writing environment, then you'll relax more.
Online, Phone, Family, and TV: When you are just belting out words, it is good if you aren't distracted by Facebook, Stack Overflow, or anywhere else.
That many factors makes it hard to come up with a formula, but it should give you an idea. As I said, for me, I binge write and I have a very tolerant spouse, but I have a heavy workload from my day job which doesn't give me a lot of time. The last time I did NaNoWriMo, I did it in 17 days but I also didn't have to visit family that year for Thanksgiving and used the few days she was visiting family to frantically write.
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