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Topic : Re: How can I make an in-universe random event feel like it was really random instead of just RNJesus' will? Some stories feature random events that bring about drastic change either to the characters - selfpublishingguru.com

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In general, the further you advance in your plot, the less random events you should have.

There is nothing wrong with starting your story with an extremely unlikely chain of events. Do you want to write a story about the everyman who wins the lottery and uses the money to fly into space where he gets hit by a radioactive asteroid and develops superpowers, but as he returns to Earth, Denmark invades the United States with mutated supersoldiers? Sure, go ahead. The premise might be extremely unlikely. But the audience understands that when this unlikely combination of event would not have happened, there would be no reason to tell your story. The interesting part of fiction is to explore the consequences of made up scenarios.

However, the further you advance in your story, the more will such unlikely events feel contrieved. The audience is invested in your premise, and wants to know its logical conclusion. If you then come up with other unlikely events to resolve it, also known as a Deus Ex Machina (if good for the protagonist) or Diablo Ex Machina (if bad for the protagonist), the audience feels as if you've stolen the resolution form them.

tl;dr:

go crazy in the first act
be realistic in the second act
be strictly deterministic in the third act


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