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Topic : Re: Is an easily guessed plot twist a good plot twist? In my post-apocalyptic novel, there are two "twists", but they're mostly tied up in each other. The first is that humans have developed - selfpublishingguru.com

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Balance is key
There is a very delicate balance between a plot twist that feels contrived and unrealistic and one that the reader can see coming from a mile away. There is no exact correct answer to this, and a lot of it comes down to execution rather than one being strictly better than the other.
Personally as a reader I hate nothing more than knowing what is going to be on the next page before I have even read it. If your plot twist is so apparent to the reader, it will be boring when you reveal it. Don't be predictable, a plot twist should be a twist.
My next biggest pet-peeve is plots that don't make sense. If it feels unrealistic, it breaks the readers' suspension of disbelief and will disconnect them from your writing. Make sure your plot has internal logical consistency. Plot twists don't occur for the sake of the twist, but because it makes sense for the characters.
Here is an example of a very well known plot twist, and one that I consider one of the best executed plot twists I have read (from A Song of Ice and Fire by G.R.R. Martin):

The Red Wedding scene is the perfect example of a well executed plot twist. When we read it for the first time it is utterly unexpected and brutal. However, it also makes perfect sense for the characters involved.

Every character behaves in a way that is logically consistent with their portrayal up to that point. In hindsight we can see all the foreshadowing and build up to the scene. We should have seen it coming but we didn't. In my view that is what makes a brilliant plot twist.
If I could tell you how to reliably achieve this, I would be a best-selling author myself, so I can only give you encouragement. Practice, write multiple versions, find the balance between a non-nonsensical twist and one that can be easily guessed. If you can achieve it, congratulations, you've done something that most authors can only dream of. Good luck.


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