: What are some signs of a chosen one nebulous enough that they can be mistaken? The setup: We have a fantasy world. A while back (like, 30-100 years; not really sure yet) a prophecy was given

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Warning: Spoilers Below
In the Mistborn series by Brandon Sanderson, there is a double misdirection regarding the driving prophesy surrounding the identity of the "Hero of Ages". Some excerpts of the prophesy are as follows:

The Hero of Ages shall be not a man, but a force. No nation may claim him, no woman shall keep him, and no king may slay him. He shall belong to none, not even himself.
He shall defend their ways, yet shall violate them. He will be their savior, yet they shall call him heretic. His name shall be Discord, yet they shall love him for it.
The Hero will have the power to save the world. But he will also have the power to destroy it.

The understanding of this prophesy comes in three stages as the series progresses:

For the first while, the prophesy is interpreted as written, that all the references to "he" and "him" meant that the Hero would be a man.
Later on, a historian realizes that this was an intentional mistranslation, and that the pronouns in the original language were gender-neutral, and as such could mean that the Hero could be either a man or a woman.
And finally, in the end, the historian realizes that maybe the pronouns weren't gender-neutral to indicate that the Hero could be someone of either gender, but instead to indicate that the Hero would in fact be someone who was effectively neither gender (i.e. a eunich).

The more twists that leave the prophesy text unchanged but fundamentally alter the understanding of it are, in my opinion, the most effective uses of a prophesy in fiction. For example, there could be a prophesy that says the chosen one will have "power in their scales". This could be interpreted literally to mean that they physically have scales and are some sort of lizardman, or is a reptile hunter with a bunch of scales collected from their kills. Or perhaps it's a weight scale and the hero is a merchant. Or that it's a reference to the scales of justice and the hero is a judge or member of law enforcement. Or it's a "scale" meaning a range of values, and the hero is a statistician.
Part of the depth and richness of a story comes from the ability to assure that the reader knows the truth before ripping their expectations out from underneath them in an "I can't believe I didn't see that coming" moment, and pushing a prophesy with a "commonly held understanding" that has its true meaning slowly revealed over the course of the plot (sometimes more than once) is a great way to accomplish that.

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Robert Jordan's The Wheel of Time series is basically revolving around the concept of a "chosen one", and some people sincerely, but wrongly believing that they are the "Dragon Reborn".
Usual "chosen one" trope involves the protagonist who is truly the chosen one, and sometimes other people who are knowingly trying to steal that role.
But this is very easy to make the prophesy so "nebulous" that there may be mistakes. Make signs of the chosen one rare, but not truly unique. Alternatively, you may show how the judgement of a "false prophet" is misleading.

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A Few Ideas:

Letter of crucifixion: The character's name starts with a T, but no one names their kids with a T, because children with T names are killed by some power trying to prevent the prophecy from being fulfilled. The reincarnation is supposed to have a name starting with "the letter of crucifiction". In reality, the crucifixion under discussion was on an X-shaped crucifix, OR "the letter of crucifiction" really means C. Tradition has "the letter of crucifiction" as a T. This is just part of the prophecy. A painting made by the prophet comes to light, showing the prophet's true meaning.
Blue eyes are exceedingly rare. The prophet's native language had no word for blue (this is a real phenomenon). The chosen one is to have "eyes the color of the sea," but the prophet saw the sea as being green. This is revealed to the character by a linguist.
The character's mother wanted him to be the fulfillment of the prophecy (or seen as one). Despite the fact that no children other than the true chosen one were EVER born fulfilling the right astrological and birth conditions, his mother lied and claimed he was born (fill in the blank - to a priest father on a Sunday at midnight in the ruins of an abandoned castle). She wanted her son to be important, but she gives a deathbed confession revealing the truth.
There is always a chosen one. At the moment of death, a new chosen one is designated. Forces trying to kill the chosen one succeed, but the old chosen one actually died three days later at the bottom of the ravine he was thrown into. The old chosen one left a message carved into the cave wall where he took refuge. The character goes to find an artifact carried by the chosen one, and in discovering the body, finds the note indicating the character isn't the chosen one.
The guardians of the true chosen one have lied. There is a secret condition to the prophecy, and they know it, but no one else does. The main character has been told all his life he was the chosen one to set him up for death in case the god's enemies came to kill him.

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There are several writing tropes oriented around misinterpreting prophecies or signs of "Chosen Ones" that may give you some ideas.

Prophecy Twist - The prophecy comes true as it was written, but in an unexpected way, and the signs didn't mean what everyone thought they meant. The classic example is Lord of the Rings, when the Witch-King confidently declares that no man can kill him... only to be killed by a woman.

"Hinder me? Thou fool. No living man may hinder me!"
Then Merry heard of all sounds in that hour the strangest. It seemed that Dernhelm laughed, and the clear voice was like the ring of steel. "But no living man am I!”

Perhaps in your story, the character who thinks he's the "Chosen One" believes that because the prophecy lines up with him so well, it means it must be him, when in actuality the clues meant something completely different and were easily misinterpreted. Maybe the prophecy said the hero would be born on the fourth of Oktumber, and your false Chosen One is confident that's him, because it's his birthday... when in actuality, that's the day the true Chosen One's village was burned down and he decided to become a hero, thus making it the day of the true hero's "birth."

Prophetic Fallacy - The prophecy is incomplete, or outright deceptive, or told by a liar. Or, alternatively, the people who heard it, including the hero, heard it wrong.

To quote TV Tropes:

For example, a man might see himself being knocked down by a car and note that the time on a digital display is 10:51, then spend the entire episode trying to avoid going near a road, despite various events conspiring to put him in danger. He eventually makes it to 10:52 and thinks he is safe, but is knocked down an hour or so later and discovers that he saw the digital clock in a mirror and his actual time of death is 12:01.

Maybe in your story, the prophecy was incomplete and parts were missing. The false Hero believes that he's the one, and so does everyone else, because he doesn't have the missing parts that reveal the full prophecy, which actually lines up with the true Chosen One.

Prophecies Are Always Right - The prophecy is always right... or at least that's what everyone believes.

Perhaps in your story, the prophecy is seemingly ironclad, and so your false Chosen One is confident that it's him because he matches it perfectly. When in reality, the prophecy was just... wrong. It wasn't the true prophecy, or that's not how fate works, or it was just a big scam by some divine entity to mess with people. Whatever the case, the true Chosen One doesn't seem to fit, and so that's why nobody suspects they are the real Chosen One.

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