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Topic : Re: How to leverage social proof? How can one use social proof as an argument without sounding like "just because everybody is doing it so should you"?. My problem is trying to demonstrate with - selfpublishingguru.com

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I think I've found another way to leverage social proof as such: the hype cycle. Pasting from Wikipedia:

"Technology Trigger" — The first phase of a hype cycle is the "technology trigger" or breakthrough, product launch or other event that generates significant press and interest.
"Peak of Inflated Expectations" — In the next phase, a frenzy of publicity typically generates over-enthusiasm and unrealistic expectations. There may be some successful applications of a technology, but there are typically more failures.
"Trough of Disillusionment" — Technologies enter the "trough of disillusionment" because they fail to meet expectations and quickly become unfashionable. Consequently, the press usually abandons the topic and the technology.
"Slope of Enlightenment" — Although the press may have stopped covering the technology, some businesses continue through the "slope of enlightenment" and experiment to understand the benefits and practical application of the technology.
"Plateau of Productivity" — A technology reaches the "plateau of productivity" as the benefits of it become widely demonstrated and accepted. The technology becomes increasingly stable and evolves in second and third generations. The final height of the plateau varies according to whether the technology is broadly applicable or benefits only a niche market.

The 5th stage called the plateau of productivity can demonstrate (to a certain degree; it can be deemed unscientific) that a technology has become mature and stable.

This could be partly demonstrated with Google Insights for search and the correct search terms:

dvcs +distributed +git +mercurial -nike -"mercurial vapor" -FIFA
scm +distributed +git + mercurial -nike -"mercurial vapor" -FIFA

(Should give them more tries, as these are biased)

In the paper I think I can give historical proof of each phase and as such give an historical overview of version control systems. For the plateau of productivity I can use the case studies Lauren Ipsum suggested.


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