: Re: Is it harder to publish a successful book these days? Today, is it harder to get a lot of people to buy and read a published book than it was in the past? (Are people reading books less

While many caveats (as mentioned in the comment to your question) apply, I think it's safe to say the answer is "yes" if you are trying to go the traditional route.

Note that in 2016 there were no breakout YA books, as there have always been in previous years.

Here's why: Trad publishers are dinosaurs failing to understand what the bright light in the sky (called the Internet) is going to do to them. (Well, has already done to them, but that spoils my metaphor.)

The ultimate decision on what gets published is made by the Marketing Depts of the Big Five. If they don't understand the book and don't know how to sell it they will simply say "no". This has nothing to do with a book's quality.

They "know" that what sells a book is the writer's name. And that's pretty much their limit.

Global surveys (see authorearnings.com) show that the Big Five rely almost exclusively on sales from authors who made a name for themselves 20+ years ago. Their new authors do not sell (for the most part).

Where you once had three-book deals for new authors they are down to two, and the publisher will dump you after the first if it doesn't sell well enough anyway. Where you might expect, as a new author, several thousand sales it's now typically down to a few hundred.

No marketing money will be put into new authors (that's reserved for the big names). And you are unlikely to get an advance.

(I have an A-lister friend - and even his advances are getting cut and he makes millions for his publishers.)

Trad publishing is imploding because they don't understand the new world of publishing. They keep ebook prices high to protect their hardback sales even though they would make money if they didn't.

There are some independent publishers (like Angry Robot) who do understand the new world, but they are few and far between.

So yes, if you are a new writer it's harder. Much harder.

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